Studying supply and demand with Steam trading cards

Playing on Steam (platform where you can buy PC games), you get “trading cards”, which can be exchanged with friends, sell on the market, or forge a complete set in a “medal”.

Everything is technically useless, have a medal or a complete set does not unlock new game levels, is purely aesthetic. That said, there are thousands of players who buy cards on the market to forge medals and thousands are also selling them and then use the profits as a credit on the purchase of other games.

So this market is quite similar to stock trading, we see that there are thousands of sell and buy orders: supply and demand for each card they decide its value.

Every year, during sales, each player gets up to three free cards every day. Those are “temporary” cards, which will automatically disappear at the end of promotion. The high supply (everyone get them free) and low demand (everyone will want to get rid of before the end of the promotion) means that the price collapses a few days after the start. Not right away, because in the beginning there are many who buy them to have a complete set (high demand) and yet not everyone have had them for free (lowest bid)

You can see how the price falls from 12 cents to 6 cents (minus a 2 cents commission)

But this year there’s an interesting twist: from January 2 is no longer possible to earn cards, but you can still swap and combine them until February 2nd; I am curious to see what will happen.

In fact, every time someone forges a medal, 9 cards are destroyed. There are 5 levels of medals, so collectors could destroy up to 45 cards each!

There will be more demand while supply will be zero.

We will see in the coming weeks how this “alternative” market will work πŸ˜‚

What do you think will happen?

Make 130% in a day

I was browsing when I got an advertising popup. It boasted crazy profits, look:LOLup to 130% in a day!!!!! Wow!!!

1000 => 2300 => 5290 => 12167 => 27984 => 64363 => 148035 => 340482 => 783109 => 1801152

Millionaire in 9 days!!!!! Wow! 😲

Obviously is a scam, what do you think about? πŸ˜‚ πŸ˜‚ πŸ˜‚ πŸ˜‚


Should I trust a seller?

About that problem I got on AliExpress, the seller sent me an email saying “no problem, I can fully refund you, as long as you change a little detail in your dispute.”

That little detail is to change the reason of the dispute: I have to say that I want a full refund because I don’t like the color of my item.

Obviously, with such a reason, I’m going to lose the dispute.

If I change the reason, I won’t get any refund from AliExpress, everything would be left in the hands of the seller and his good willing: until now he was saying “if you zoomed on the third image you could see the cable wasn’t USB”, now he says “if you give up on the dispute, I’ll fully refund you.

Should I trust him?

A little little voice inside of me says “yes, he’s a good guy, trust him”….

Update: I didn’t trust him and then Aliexpress gave me a full refund

Got scammed on Aliexpress

I just got scammed for the first time on Aliexpress.

I ordered an adaptor which the description said “USB”, instead when I opened the box, it was a proprietary plug.

You can imagine my frustration, not for the monetary loss ($ 2.68), but for my wasted time, I waited more than 75 days to get it from China (Italian customs are sloooooooooow).

Now, for a matter of principle I’ll dispute the order with Alipay, let’s see if I can get a full refund, as the adaptor I received it’s totally useless.

I wrote this:

The product details say “Sensor Receiver with USB Cable”. When I received the goods, instead, the cable is not USB.

The item description did not state that the product is not actually with USB cable.

I bought this item especially for the USB cable, as it’s stated in title, without it’s totally useless

Since this is not my error, I expect a full refund. I can ship goods back as long as shipping fees aren’t paid by me, as sending this back would exceed the item value

Let’s see the result…

Avoid using Cryptsy

After a while I went back on Cryptsy, to see what happened. the vertcoins I mined at the launch, were worth 20 cents, they rose up to 60 euro, but I did not sell them “they will get more value over time”, now are worth 2 euro, what a pity.
Anyways, I mined them in a day, so I did not lose money…
The main problem is that I went to withdraw… there were many bitcoins missing from my account! I was remembering there were around 20 euro, but right now it’s empty! How it’s that possible?!?
I check withdrawals, and I see one made one month ago, to the address b928d5c7a81a40713407d40a8bf1e92ded1a59d1. (invalid address)
Possible??? I did not get any withdrawal confirmation email!!
I contact support and this is their reply:

your coins have been moved to a cold storage wallet for better security

For security???? Without notification?? This is stealing! If, with the “security” excuse they get 20 euro from the thousands of users they have, it’s a lot of money!!!

Now I have to see if I will get back the bitcoins, I asked support hours ago, but no response yet…

Outsourcing? Be careful!

IMG_20141111_083209At work, some months ago, I got a simple idea to sell to my customers. Nothing really complex, just a simple tool to make gift wrapping more pretty. I could have done it by myself, but not at the right price point.
So I went on Alibaba and I did a custom order from a chinese company.
I got the stuff, exactly as I expected, I was happy.
I planned to launchΒ  my idea in a few weeks, on time for Christmas, when this morning I receive an email from the chinese supplier.
The email is addressed to all of their customers (obviously all in clear text, there’s no privacy for them) and it says “new hot sell 2014”: they are selling my fucking tool as it was their idea!!!!!
Not to mention that I made a small batch just to test the waters, so the unit price that I paid was much higher than the one that new customers will get, because I was the one who paid the molds!!!!!
So, now I have dozens of competitors that can launch my idea on the market before that I could launch it as I wanted!!!
You can imagine how much I’m pissed off right now… – It’s already arrived!

(Continues from part 2)
A few hours after lowering my discount from 30% to 15%, someone ordered me the look thatI wanted, and this afternoon the shipment already arrived!
Thanks to Amazon I got a 15% discount, and thanks to I got an additional 15% discount by paying in bitcoin!
I didn’t expect that it would arrive so fast! Probably who bought it had Amazon Prime and chose overnight shipping.
I paid 0.251 bitcoin (66 euro) a book with a 90 euro cover price – double win!

The only drawback is that you need to keep you eyes open: once you click on “shipment received”, bitcoins will change hands, so you must be sure that you actually got your stuff!