No more cloud mining for me

For some reason, cloud mining is enticing me. If you remember, when bitcoin started to be popular, I rented some gigahash on eBay.
I invested 5 euro and I got only 2 back, because at the moment to mine, the most profitable sha256 coin were terracoins… but their value crashed just a few hours before cashing them…
Now, with the network difficulty that has increased exponentially (every hour, in the whole world only 150 bitcoins can be mined, so, the more are mining it, more hashpower is needed=, those gigahashes would be totally useless…
Also cex.io is enticing, but with those prices it’s impossible to get a return on investment, it has been designed for day trading. Buy low and sell high, being careful to the network difficulty: every two weeks it drastically increases, making the value of a GH/s plummet.
On March I found an offer on bitcointalk: someone from Belgium has 15 antminer S1 (worth $9000, with 2700 GH/s power) and is selling shares, distributing profits to shareholders, with an 8% fee.
I calculated the ROI, and, supposing a 20% difficulty increase, I could have made an easy 10% in 6 months.
Not bad, I told myself, and I sent 0.14 bitcoins. Unfortunately, some forum trolls made those guy realize that he could disappear with the shareholders money and… even if he had honest intentions in the beginning, as he registered with his real name, phone number and address, after the first payment he disappeared…
So… I invested 0.14 bitcoins and I only got 0.02… anyways, I saw that the difficulty has increased much more than a 20% that I supposed in my calculations, if I was lucky, I would have got just half of them!
Then, watching on Whatmine, I saw that it was the right time to mine Peercoins. I rented some gigahash for 48 hours on MiningRigRentals, but I didn’t calculated correctly the difficulty that I set up for the worker: it was too high and the first 12 hours of rent were wasted. And at that point mining Peercoin wasn’t worth…
And then the last one, Cryptsy and their mining contracts. Crazy prices, so for the first batch I give up. But, for who invested in the first batch it was an awesome deal! Until all shares were sold, the price would have been fixed, and slowly increased over time, to artificially create demand.
Buying immediately, the price was 0.018 per share, after 24 hours 0.0185 and after 48 hours 0.019. Who bought them at 0.018, after just three days could have sold them for 0.0225!!!
And then Cryptsy did a second batch, I blindly bought a share! But, I didn’t realize that this time the shares were much more and the minimum order was ten times the previous batch! A disaster! Too much offer and small demand made the price crumble to 0.11! Damn!
I tried to hold the share for a few days, the price rose a little, but, since the difficulty readjustment was near, I dumped it, at loss. A few days later, without a valid reason, the price bumps to a point that would have sent me to breakeven.
Fuck.

Warning: MetaTrader 4 update!!!

Recently Metaquotes is rolling out the update 600 of their MetaTrader 4.
They were crazy enough to:
  • Make the update automatic and mandatory for everyone
  • Don’t warn anyone
  • Change the directory structure (that was unchanged from the past NINE years), just to mess with EA and indicators that supposed that the files position will never change
  • Change how some MQL functions are working, in this way many EA or indicators will stop working correctly
I’m really speechless, how it’s possible that they release a such destructive update, without warning and automatic for everyone???

I quit using NumberOne

Last night NumberOne one EURJPY did a disaster, losing 20% in a few hours. It’s not small money!
On another account, Not_MaloMax, a free and opensource EA “written in 5 minutes” that works similarly to NumberOne, made a whopping 40%. But that was a small account… 🙁
Two months ago it wasn’t profitable because at that time the market required in-trend mode. Now it wants counter-trend. Today sensitivity must be set to 30 pip on EURUSD, tomorrow at 40, the day after tomorrow backtests are saying that with 25 we can have the best result…
I can’t foresee the future, with this market conditions and with MetaTrader it’s not possible to make impulsive scalping. I have a dedicated server, with much more “raw” power than a normal VPS, a very low ping, so it should work very well.

Last chance for Tick Scalpers

NumberOne is my favorite EA, you can see how many posts I wrote on it.
Last summer it was a miracle, in three months I quadrupled my FXPRIMUS account (maybe it was working too well).
Unfortunately, in latest months the market volatility has drastically reduced.
I was hoping that after the election of the President of the USA things would go back to normal, instead it didn’t, the number of “failed” trades it’s too high to being profitable, as you can see in the graph of my public live myfxbook page.
Fortunately, NumberOne 1.5.2.1 introduced a new trading mode that should radically change its operations: we will see in the next weeks if it can change the situation.

AvaFX has been hacked?

I just received this email from AvaFX:

Uhm… there is something wrong. Why they should change the password for every user while the market is open? If it’s just a security routine, why they did not warn me, or why they did not change it on saturday morning? It looks like they have been hacked and they were forced to issue a site-wide password reset, exactly as Evernote did a few days ago.

New negative record made by good good system

I don’t remember if I said somewhere, but, after a suggestion by a reader I followed good good system from 19th to 28th november 2012.
I made two euro, but I disabled it immediately (but I left it on my unlimited demo account): it’s unacceptable to have four identical trades open for a week with a 500 pip drawdown just to make 20 – it’s gambling!
Raise the stakes and continue to bet on the same direction is a very common behavior on ZuluTrade, but I never saw a disaster like this:
THIRTY trades, almost identical, opened very close one to each other! A monstrous, epic all-in of over 9200 pips!
And, probably, due to the new ZuluTrade policy to give commissions to signals only if the have a positive monthly balance, those trades will be left in the wild until the beginning of march, otherwise the signal will lose the juicy rebates: in this case, with a lot of trades and hundreds of followers we are talking about thousands of di euro.
What’s better? Burn followers’ account, or renounce to 2-3000 euro of commissions?

Extreme slippage on IC Markets

Two weeks ago I opened an account with IC Markets to use it with NumberOne.
The first week I kept it at minimum risk, to see how it was performing: it was doing great, hence I raised the lots.
But this week was awful, I got extreme slippages!
Both on opening
2013.02.05 16:10:07   Unfavorable Stop-to-Market open slippage= 5,7 pips.
2013.02.05 16:10:30   Unfavorable Stop-to-Market open slippage= 3,1 pips.
2013.02.07 13:42:44   Unfavorable Stop-to-Market open slippage= 2,8 pips.
And in closing
2013.02.05 16:10:10   Unfavorable Stop Loss close slippage = 7.6 pips
2013.02.07 13:42:48   Unfavorable Stop Loss close slippage = 2.1 pips
2013.02.07 14:23:01   Unfavorable Stop Loss close slippage = 4.1 pips
What could be a nice win, thanks to slippage become an huge loss!
Even if the latest version is smart and detects big slippages:
2013.02.07 13:42:44   Adjusting the Stop-to-Market open slippage stop loss & take profit values.
in the end the result was negative. For now I will pause my trading at IC Markets and I will watch what will happen. I am angry.

Protip: don’t withdraw from “benchmark” accounts

Friday, my BreakON account reached the 20% profit in two months, so I decided to withdraw, halving the capital but keeping the same trade size: effectively doubling the risk.
Today I got a 140 pip loss, but, having halved the capital, the graph shows a cliff:
Today I lost 30 pips less than I lost on 13th december, but at a first glance it looks like I lost the double. Rightly, since the capital is halved compared to a month ago. (If on a 1000 euro account I lose 9 euro, it’s the 0.9%, but if the account is a 100 euro one, I lose the 9%)
In fact, on the profit tab, and on ZuluTrade, the situation is not THAT desperate.
Lesson learned: If you wanna keep a “benchmark” account to show performance on public, DON’T WITHDRAW and DON’T DEPOSIT, otherwise the graph will be distorted.
On the other side, some EA sellers could use this technique to distort the “verified” graph to their profit: if I got a 60 pip win, the graph would look wonderful.