Scared me!

I was giving a last glance to Twitter just before going to sleep, when I read this:
OHMYGOD! All bitcoin private keys leaked??? How that could happen??
I got goosebumps! If a private key of a wallet is leaked, it means everyone can take possess of the coins inside! And, if this is true, it means now the bitcoin value is ZERO! With my heart beating very fast, I check the price on Mtgox… it’s still around $1000… weird? I copy a private key and I try to import that wallet on mine: ERROR!
I feel relieved! It’s just a joke!
But… maybe… someone could actually believe it… and the value of a bitcoin could fall!

Ps: I rented a 6 GH/s ASIC miner for 24 hour, soon I’ll write results!

Last chance for Tick Scalpers

NumberOne is my favorite EA, you can see how many posts I wrote on it.
Last summer it was a miracle, in three months I quadrupled my FXPRIMUS account (maybe it was working too well).
Unfortunately, in latest months the market volatility has drastically reduced.
I was hoping that after the election of the President of the USA things would go back to normal, instead it didn’t, the number of “failed” trades it’s too high to being profitable, as you can see in the graph of my public live myfxbook page.
Fortunately, NumberOne introduced a new trading mode that should radically change its operations: we will see in the next weeks if it can change the situation.

My opinion about FXOpen

I opened a live account with FXOpen to do some experiments with ZuluTrade.
While I was waiting for the account activation, I installed their MetaTrader, I logged in, and I set all the graphs and indicators I use the most. There was also PD Info, an indicator that shows in a glance all the trading parameters.
And I saw a shocking one: the stop level on EUR/USD is 10 pips! Ridiculous! It means that it’s impossible to set a stop loss at less than 10 pips from the actual price. I could understand a value like that on an exotic pair used by few people, like the dollar/turkish lira, but on euro/dollar it’s totally unacceptable! Who has to make profit from my operations? Me, or the broker? The answer is obvious, and,  in fact, in this post there aren’t screenshots: after seeing such a value, I immediately uninstalled their MetaTrader and closed the account! (Luckily for the month of November there are no fees for deposits and withdrawals made via Skrill!)

+N pip monthly

As you may know, on ZuluTrade, signal providers only get paid if the month ends with a positive pip result. If theoretically this is a good thing, actually it’s bad. Very bad.
Example 1: Forex Cruise Control.
With so many subscribers and that invested capital (in May: $14 million), every month he made at least $100-200,000 out of commissions.
If his trades are not successful, what’s better:
  • close them for customers’ safety
  • keep them open until they are winning and keep the juicy commission

Who cares if followers will be margin called!

Example 2: 20 pips winers.
As usually he was a crazy bull, closing and opening identical trades. So, his month was going to end with a negative pip result.
“Disaster! I won’t get my juicy commissions!!”, he would have thought, so he started to trade on gold like a crazy.
Why he started to trade on gold? I will talk about this on the next post.

Brokers and their prizes

Reading a topic on the SteadyOnFX forum, about the FXPRIMUS freeze level problem, someone said:

Fellow traders, be kind to FX Primus, they just received an award: “Best Trade Executions 2012” and “Most Reliable Broker Asia 2012”

So, someone else replied:

No, Best Forex Broker Asia 2012 is Instaforex!

And the final answer:

But, wait!
Exness is “Best Standard Forex Broker Asia 2012”

Who actually won the prize?

The truth is disarming: ALL OF THEM
Yes, this year the Global Banking & Finance Review gave SEVENTY prizes to brokers!
Whoa! That’s really an high-reputation prize!

The funniest part is that AVAFX won four prizes, for example “Most Trusted Forex Broker 2012”
Most trusted broker?
If so, I’m scared to meet the less trusted ones!

NumberOne vs NFP – July 2012

Every first friday of the month, at 8.30 am EST, the NonFarm Payroll is published, and it’s a statistic that usually it’s a bomb on EURUSD… and with NumberOne you can do a lot of money.
But this month was troublesome – I had to disable both LMAX and FXPRIMUS because I felt that they were messing with my trades.
The only honest broker left was ILQ, and…:
AWESOME! They also fiddle with the spread against scalpers!

Ps: I read that people on LMAX and FXPRIMUS got a good result, while I didn’t, because I disabled it, great.

Be careful with PipDefender

If you are wondering about what happened in my experiment with PipDefender, well, it failed miserably. 20 pips winers traded irresponsibly, cheating with trades on gold to hide the huge drawdown on the ZuluTrade graphs. (Soon I will write about this big ZuluTrade problem…)
However, after the epic margin call that left me almost dry on AAAFx, I decided to try to use PipDefender to monitor reverse trades on ZuluTrade.
Some data on this signal:

  • Trades only GBPJPY, 3-4 times a day
  • Every trade gives a 15 pip loss
  • Every trade has a 91% chance to be losing
  • When it wins, it makes 120 pips.
In a perfect world, if I reverse it, I will get big profits!
In real life, instead there are three problems:
  • The spread on GBPJPY is 6 pips, so when you open a trade you will start at -6 pip (with AAAFx)
  • The minimum distance to place the stop loss is 14 pip (with AAAFx)
  • Inverting the values, the spread isn’t calculated
So, the disaster is only waiting to happen.
With PipDefender, in theory it’s possible to fix the problem, and for the first week it did a good job.
Around Thursday I noticed that the trades were closed with big delay (8-10 hours) compared to the master trade. Strange, I though, maybe it missed the take profit by one pip and it didn’t start.
Today I go to see the MetaTrader and I see the empty GBPJPY graph…
After a while I realize…. “hey, here shouldn’t be an EA running???”
So here is the log:

2012.06.06 21:59:37 PipDefender_client GBPJPY,M1: removed
2012.06.06 21:59:37 PipDefender_client GBPJPY,M1: uninit reason 1
2012.06.06 21:59:37 PipDefender_client GBPJPY,M1: deinitialized
2012.06.06 21:59:36 PipDefender_client GBPJPY,M1: Alert: PipDefender ABORT: the EA will be removed from the chart!
2012.06.06 21:59:36 PipDefender_client GBPJPY,M1: [X] ==>       Bridge.dll error while sending: GBPJPY pair info data (msg= 10302 GBPJPY 122.61500 122.64600 140 0 1339011320)
2012.06.06 21:59:36 PipDefender_client GBPJPY,M1: Alert: Bridge.dll error while sending: GBPJPY pair info data (msg= 10302 GBPJPY 122.61500 122.64600 140 0 1339011320)

So, PipDefender has a great power, but you have to be careful, otherwise you trades will be unwatched and can make a potential disaster.

Megadroid works only in dreams

Those are the trades of today:

(The last row is SteadyWinner)
Today, Megadroid, as usual, even if traded for $6000, did the same poor result, with the second trade that is actually losing, due to the ECN commissions. (And then: why the stoploss and the takeprofit are set to zero? I disabled the stealth mode)
Where the cuck are the millions promised??? Let’s go to see?
This is a screenshot from the website:
First of all there isn’t a column with pip gains, but only for profits. And they are gorgeous! $17000, $5000, $14000: wowwww!!!!
Ok, now watch the lot size column: it’s ridiculously high!!
In the operation 355 it is trading with more than $3 million!!! If you replicate in an average “amateur” account, this trade profited… $0.42!
And the operation 346? $193, not bad. Ok, but it is working with almost $2 million! In my account it would have made 3 cents… minus 16 cents for the commission = 13 cents loss!
Conclusion: the data on the Megadroid website is pure garbage: it’s theoretical data of what it could be happened if in the year 2001 you invested $10000 with Megadroid.
The problem is that Megadroid has been published in the year 2009, so it wouldn’t be possible to invest $10000 with it in the year 2001…