Don’t do tomorrow what you can do today

Just yesterday I said that Megadroid works (but just in dreams) and I decided that tonight I would have asked a complete refund.
But what happened last night? This:

To make 10 cents it lost $20. Great, right? And I was lucky! Look the EURUSD graph:

There were two trades, for a miracle the second managed to finish in a small loss, otherwise to make 10 cents I would have lose $50.

Moral: don’t do tomorrow what you can do today

Megadroid works only in dreams

Those are the trades of today:

(The last row is SteadyWinner)
Today, Megadroid, as usual, even if traded for $6000, did the same poor result, with the second trade that is actually losing, due to the ECN commissions. (And then: why the stoploss and the takeprofit are set to zero? I disabled the stealth mode)
Where the cuck are the millions promised??? Let’s go to see?
This is a screenshot from the website:
First of all there isn’t a column with pip gains, but only for profits. And they are gorgeous! $17000, $5000, $14000: wowwww!!!!
Ok, now watch the lot size column: it’s ridiculously high!!
In the operation 355 it is trading with more than $3 million!!! If you replicate in an average “amateur” account, this trade profited… $0.42!
And the operation 346? $193, not bad. Ok, but it is working with almost $2 million! In my account it would have made 3 cents… minus 16 cents for the commission = 13 cents loss!
Conclusion: the data on the Megadroid website is pure garbage: it’s theoretical data of what it could be happened if in the year 2001 you invested $10000 with Megadroid.
The problem is that Megadroid has been published in the year 2009, so it wouldn’t be possible to invest $10000 with it in the year 2001…

Second week of Megadroid and Topbot

Here we are at the second week of Megadroid and TopBot (for Megadroid actually is the third week, but during the first it didn’t do anything)

Megadroid as usually is less profitable than begging on a blind alley, making less than one euro in three weeks. (And this is ridiculous, if you consider that with my risk settings I can lose 25 euro with a stoploss). Where are the millions that they are promising on their website? And I was complaining that keeping SteadyWinner enabled wasn’t worth…
TopBot worked well, except for that unfortunate trade on EURUSD….
On ZuluTrade instead I am at the same level of january, what some providers make, others are losing, and so on…

Cashback from march

CashBackForex just credited me the cashback from march:

Not bad, if you consider that I invested a very little capital! Within a month they should send it via PayPal, I’ll keep you informed.
I am thinking to close all the accounts connected to ZuluTrade and re-open them through
CashBackForex. For example, if I open a new account with AAAFx I’ll get 0.7 pip for each trade, that means $0.07 on EURUSD with 0.01 lot. If I suppose to follow Forex Cruise Control with 0.05 lot, in average I’ll get $20 back every month. Not a lot, but better than nothing.

High Profit Factor changed his strategy

Who follows High Profit Factor will have noticed that, from the beginning of the week he traded EURUSD and yesterday traded in peak hours instead of the calm asian sessions (even if I must admit the trades were successful).
Anyway, I don’t really like this change, if I consider how the drawdowns were managed in the past, I don’t feel really safe: deleted.

Spam from Megadroid

I didn’t notice it before, because I registered Megadroid with a rarely used email, but they send daily newsletters with questionable content. For example the last 4 emails were sponsoring a new awesome system developed by Fapturbo Steve (not only he is a competitor, in theory, but his system is not profitable) to make money by betting on baseball matches (safe and scientific, right?)
It’s obvious that they are promoting it as the holy grail only to have a commission on each sale! Nevertheless I was sucker enough to buy Megadroid, maybe I could buy something else!
The probability of asking a full refund before the 60 days is increased a lot, also due to the profits that are too small compared to the risk.

ZuluTrade for the BlackBerry PlayBook

I just installed the ZuluTrade Android app on my PlayBook. Works flawlessly!

The only problem is that, until ZuluTrade does not “sign” their app with their key, is not very easy to install it by yourself, it’s a complicated proces that consists in:

  1. Register as a developer and ask for a signing key at https://www.blackberry.com/SignedKeys/
  2. Install the keys received by email following the instructions inside the mail
  3. Install the Android SDK (with the Java JDK if you use Windows, not required on other OSes)
  4. Run the Android SDK Manager and download the toolkits for Android Gingerbread 2.3.3
  5. Get the ZuluTrade apk from an Android handset copying /data/app/zulu.trade.app.apk
  6. Download the command line tools for Android apps from RIM  https://bdsc.webapps.blackberry.com/android/tool/
  7. Open a terminal window in that directory
  8. Create a debug token and install following this instructions https://bdsc.webapps.blackberry.com/html5/documentation/ww_testing/runnning_unsigned_apps_using_a_debug_token_1866987_11.html
  9. Write in the terminal: ./apk2bar zulu.trade.app.apk /Developer/Android -d debugtoken.bar
  10. Write in the terminal: ./blackberry-deploy -installApp -device 192.168.10.100 -password xxx -package zulu.trade.app.apk
  11. Done!
Too much work? Yes, actually I was also lazy to do that, and I have programming experience!
If they do it once, it will be easier for everyone, so, do you want ZuluTrade for the PlayBook? Help me petition it on the official forum!

2nd week of Megadroid + new EA: Topbot

How Megadroid performed last week? I let it run from tuesday to friday and I got this measly result: 0.34 euro.

 

On the other side, I asked for a free 3 weeks demo of Morpheus TopBot, and it did 4.44 euro in a single trade.
TopBot is relatively new (only 1-2 months history in public myfxbook profiles) so I don’t trust it too much (backtests are awesome, but I don’t believe in them, I only care about real results – with the wisdom of hindsight everyone can achieve good results) and its “no refund + can’t change broker” policy left me puzzled.
Anyway, by sending an email to [email protected] with your account number, they will give you a 3 weeks license. Awesome, right?

Risk and leverage

On some forums I read that using a financial leverage over 100:1 is crazy, it’s better having lower values, 50:1 or less.

I am not an expert, I write some thoughts on those thoughts.
A standard lot, usually, is 100k dollars. (On cent brokers is 1k dollars)
A minilot is 0.1 lot (10k dollars) and microlot is 0.01 lot (1000 dollars)

Let’s do some examples with numbers.
In our example the dollar goes from 1.4021 a 1.3273 and we have a 1000 dollars account.

Without leverage, I buy a microlot of EUR/USD at $1000 and I use the entire capital.
If I buy $1000 at 1.4021 (€713.22) and sell at 1.3273 (€ 753.41 euro), I make €40.19 euro. (or I could have lost them)

With a 2:1 leverage I could buy the same microlot with $500, and get the same €40.19 gain, not the double.
With a 50:1 leverage, I could buy it with $20, getting the same result.
With a 100:1, I could get it with $10, still getting the same result.
And with a 500:1 I could get it with $2, getting, guess what? The same €40.19 gain.

With all the conditions being equal, the leverage does not change at all the final result.

What’s the problem? It’s that, usually, a such big change of the EUR/USD exchange rate it’s something that happens in a long time, and it’s difficult to predict. It’s favorable getting smaller profits for each trade, for example selling the same trade at 1,3970 and be pleased with a €2.60 gain, maybe buying 1 minilot and making 26 euro. Or you could buy 1 lot (that with a 500:1 leverage is $200), making €260 in a single trade. It’s all about greediness.

I do a borderline case:
With a $105 account and leverage 100:1 I open a minilot trade ($10k of EUR for $100). Boom! Immediate margin call! The broker spread made the trade lose more than it could and it closed the trade.
With the same $105 account but with a 200:1 leverage, opening the same trade makes the €26 profit.
In this borderline case, the 200:1 leverage was safer, because the trade required less capital, and the remain covered the margin.

The conclusion is: with all conditions being equal, an higher leverage is saver than a lower one.